Regional simulation of long-term organic carbon stock changes in cropland soils using the DNDC model: 1. Large-scale model validation against a spatially explicit data set

Because of the large spatial and temporal variability of soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics, a modelling approach is crucial in detailed regional analyses. Several estimates of regional scale SOC sequestration potential have been made using dynamic soil organic matter (SOM) models which have been linked to spatial databases contained within a Geographic Information System. In all these previous studies, a large-scale model validation, which provides information on the general model performance for the study area under concern, was impossible because of lack of data. A data set of over 190 000 SOC measurements, grouped as means per community and covering the period 1989–2000 was available for Flanders in northern Belgium. In order to validate the DNDC model at a large spatial scale, we used this data set along with detailed pH, soil texture and crop areas which were all available at the municipality scale to simulate SOC stocks for the entire study area during the period 1990–2000. A minor adjustment of the initial distribution of SOC in the model’s SOC pool was necessary to fit the simulated SOC stock changes to the measured decrease of )475 kg OC ha year (0–30 cm). Although DNDC was able to simulate the SOC stock changes well for the whole study area, the simulated decrease in the SOC stocks was overestimated for communities predominantly having sandy textures and underestimated for communities with silt loam to silt textures. This study also urges caution with the application of SOM models at regional scales after limited validation or calibration at the field scale as these do not guarantee good simulation of spatial variation in SOC changes.